Poland Calls NATO Meeting After Deadly Explosion - The Wednesday AM Quickie 11/16/22

By Corey Pein — Nov 16, 2022

I'm not sure what happens next, but the election results gave me hope. – Corey

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THE BIG NEWS

Murky Details Behind Explosion That Killed Polish Civilians

Russia fired approximately 100 missiles at Ukraine yesterday in what the New York Times called "one of the broadest aerial attacks since the invasion began" in February. The attacks knocked out power in the capital, Kyiv, and across the country, killing at least one person. As scary as that is, this story gets worse, and more scary for everyone: two people were killed in a Polish village near the Ukraine border, Przewodow, following one or more explosions at a granary, reportedly caused by one or more projectiles. Early reports in the Polish press were vague, but a U.S. intelligence official told reporters that the explosion was caused by Russian rockets that may have gone astray. As Poland's top leaders convened a "crisis" meeting with the country's National Security Council, Russia's Defense Ministry denied striking targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border, saying any blame cast its way was a "deliberate provocation."

Then, late last night, multiple anonymous U.S. officials told the Associated Press that the deadly incident may have been a Ukrainian mishap:

Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Whether or not that proves true, this could turn out to be a very big deal. Unlike Ukraine, Poland is a member of the NATO military alliance. Member states, including the U.S., are obliged to defend one another in the event that any one is attacked. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, told Politico that he hoped Russia would apologize quickly for the inadvertent loss of life. He noted that the incident "brings into question Article 5" of the NATO charter, which holds that "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." As of last night, the Polish government was ready to invoke NATO Article 4, which calls for consultation among members whenever "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

President Joe Biden spoke directly to Polish President Andrzej Duda yesterday to discuss the situation. Then he called an emergency meeting of G7 leaders at the ongoing G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Then he told reporters it was "unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it [any missile] was fired from Russia."

Even if it turns out Russian missiles landed in Poland and killed Polish citizens, that doesn't mean World War III kicks off without a vote. Per Politico,

the exact details and motivations of a strike would affect the possibility or scale of any NATO response. In other words, if the incident was determined to be unintentional, the military alliance may choose to avoid a response that would risk escalating the conflict.

An intentional Russian strike on Poland wouldn't make a lot of sense, given that Russia's military has proven unable to hold on to the Ukrainian territory it captured. However, the invasion itself didn't make a lot of sense, either – and yesterday's salvos on Ukraine also knocked out power in Moldova. The world will be watching closely in the coming days what facts are established about what exactly happened in Przewodow, and how each countries that's involved responds.

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ON THE SHOW TODAY

11/16: Sam hosts Ari Berman, author at Mother Jones, to discuss his the midterm elections and his recent piece "How Wisconsin Became the GOP's Laboratory for Dismantling Democracy". Then, Sam is joined by Aaron Kleinman, director of research for the States Project at Future Now, to discuss how Democrats did in the midterms at the state level across the country.

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PARTING WORDS

"If you tell people that voting is hard, or voter fraud is rampant, or elections are rigged, it doesn't make people more likely to participate. Why would you want to play a game you thought was rigged?"

-- David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, explaining to the New York Times how Trumpist election denial propaganda seems to have hurt Republican turnout in the midterms.

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