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Races to Watch This Election Day - The Tuesday AM Quickie 11/8/22

By Jack Crosbie —

Iiiiiiiiit's election day, everyone. Hope you voted already, but if you're like me and left everything up to the last minute, hit the polls today. If you're reading this around ten a.m. noon uhhhh let's say two p.m., I'm probably on my way to my polling station, which is... uh... let me get back to you on that. It's changed since the primaries. I'll make it though, better believe it. Stay tuned for some show news! - Jack

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THE BIG NEWS

It's Election Day! Here Are the Races to Watch

All right everyone, election day. First, a programming note. As you'll see in the memo below, we've got your normally scheduled Majority Report at noon and then live election night coverage starting at 7pm. We'll send around another reminder about that a little before we go live again.

SO! Here we go. In the interests of time I'm going to do a lightning-round list of as many of the big races as possible, with plenty of links to further coverage so you don't miss anything pivotal. Without further ado:

Pennsylvania

Two huge ones here: Dr. Mehmet Oz versus John Fetterman for an open Senate seat, and Josh Shapiro versus Doug Mastriano for the governorship. You know who these guys are. Polling on both these races is a tossup, with Shapiro roughly 10 points up but still not clear, and Oz and Fetterman neck and neck. Also to watch from here: Summer Lee trying to swipe a House seat! A huge chance for the left, despite party sabotage and AIPAC's underhanded ad campaign.

Arizona

Arizona, Arizona, Arizona: the big one. Mark Kelly is trying to hold of Thiel-spawn Blake Masters in the Senate Race, and election conspiracy freak Kari Lake is trying to nab the governor's mansion from Katie Hobbs. Both sides have brought out the big guns, hosting former Presidents Trump and Obama for huge rallies, with the GOP even inviting people like Steve Bannon. This is one of the nail-biters on both counts.

Michigan

Michigan it's hard to pin on one race. There are tons of House races, a ballot measure to overturn an abortion ban, another ballot measure to protect elections, the State Supreme Court could flip, the Governor's race is competitive, and it's possible one party could walk out with a legislative trifecta. Oh, and there's an election denier up for Secretary of State in what will certainly be a battleground in 2024. Fun stuff!

Texas

There are a bunch of local and statewide races I cannot sum up – judges, sheriffs, some big-city DAs – but the big national-attention-grabbing race in Texas is the governor race of Greg Abbott versus, you guessed it, Beto O'Rourke. What will he run for next if he loses?! I hope we don't find out, because he wins. Will he? Unclear. He's down almost 10 percent in polling.

Ohio

This is another big one: J.D. Vance versus Tim Ryan for the Senate. It was neck and neck for many months but now Vance is surging. Peter Thiel is laughing. Can Ryan white-knuckle it out? God I hope so. The governor race doesn't seem competitive, so we can let that one go by.

North Carolina

Against all odds, there's a competitive race in North Carolina for a Senate seat. The Republican, Representative Ted Budd, has a slight lead over Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former State Supreme Court chief justice.

Georgia

Here's one of the other big Senate clashes: Hershel Walker versus Raphael Warnock. You've seen the headlines from that race, now it's just time to dig in and hope that Warnock can pull through. Walker is ahead by a hair right now. Meanwhile, Brian Kemp is 5 points up on Stacy Abrams in the governor race. Here's hoping for an upset.

New Hampshire

This one is basically all one race: Senator Maggie Hassan desperately trying to keep her blue seat out of the hands of election-denying psycho Don Bolduc. The Times says this race could be an early weathervane for how the rest of the night is going to go, as NH is a small state and usually gets votes in fast.

ALSO:

Michigan, California and Vermont are all voting on whether to enshrine a right to abortion in their state constitutions, while Montana is voting on whether a fetus is a legal human being and Kentucky is voting to say that the State constitution does not enshrine abortion rights.

A lot of this info is shamelessly lifted from Daniel Nichanian's tremendous breakdown of these races on Twitter, which can also be found in blog form over at Bolts Magazine. Highly recommend giving that election day cheat sheet (the second link) a glance before you head to the polls. Honestly. Look at this thing! It's completely comprehensive. And even better – he'll be on the show tonight!

UN Climate Talks Open

Outside of the U.S., world leaders met on Monday for the first day of COP 27 in Egypt's Red Sea resort city of Sharm el Sheikh. The elephant in the room this year is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has upset the global energy market (read: messed with the oil supply) and made many countries double down on natural gas and oil from other sources. Here's this for a tone-setter:

"We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator,” the United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, told the gathering of more than 100 princes, presidents, and prime ministers...

Cheery words! Biden is expected to visit the Summit on Friday; for now, John Kerry is there in his stead.

Elon Musk Brainstorming More Idiotic Twitter Ideas

Sorry, this is all so funny to me. We've got a banger of a report out of Platformer today that suggests that Elon and his cronies are just throwing extremely stupid spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. Listen to this stuff:

Musk has discussed putting the entire site behind a paywall, Platformer has learned. Meanwhile, the company is scrambling to lure back employees who it laid off mere hours ago, and some workers say the economics behind its soon-to-relaunch Twitter Blue subscription could actually lose the company money.

That's just the top line of the story! The details are even dumber. Go read the Platformer blog now, you won't regret it.

QUICKEST QUICKIES

  • Ted Cruz Hit By White Claw at Astro's Parade Hahahahahahahaha via WaPo.
  • Russia Growing Frantic About Casualties in Ukraine The usually tight-lipped war-propaganda machine is starting to show cracks. via WaPo.
  • Elon Musk Urges People to Vote Republican His reasoning is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. via Politico.
  • GOP Already Planning to Contest Election Results Again, this is a test-drive for 2024. We'll see what they get away with. via Politico.

SOME NUMBER

26

Number of House races Politico has as "Toss ups." It estimates that the GOP only has to win about two of them to take the House, if they secure all 216 seats that Politico predicts are either secure or leaning Republican. Oof.

ON THE SHOW TODAY

11/8 Sam and Emma break down the biggest headlines as the midterm elections approach this evening. Plus, they're joined by Amjad Iraqi, editor at 972 Magazine, to give us the state of play of what happened with the Israeli elections.


11/8 ELECTION NIGHT: It's Election Night 2022! Sam, Emma, and the MR Crew are coming to you live with all-night election coverage, featuring Dave Weigel, Daniel Nichanian, and Heather Digby Parton!

DON'T MISS MR CLIPS

Tulsi Gabbard's Quest To Become Trump’s VP Begins With Chuck Grassley Endorsement

There's only one thing she's gunning for.

Ben Shapiro Warns Republican 'Discontent' And Election Denial If Democrats Win Midterms

They're just tweeting out their game plan here.

PARTING WORDS

“I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.”

– Donald Trump, in the closing minutes of an Ohio Rally. Here we go, folks!

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