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Lula Leads in Brazil, But Headed For a Runoff - The Monday AM Quickie 10/3/22

By Jack Crosbie —

Could this be the end for Jair Bolsonaro's fascist regime? We'll see – results are still coming in, and who knows how Jair will react. PLUS: a huge guest joins the show this afternoon, in studio! - Jack

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THE BIG NEWS

Lula Leads in Brazil's Biggest Elections in Years – But Will Bolsonaro Give Up Peacefully if He Loses?

Results from Brazil's first round of Presidential voting are coming in, and a pretty clear picture of the next phase has come through. It's both good for the left and troubling: let's break it down.

So far, leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a significant lead over incumbent fascist President Jair Bolsonaro. With over 99% of the vote in, Lula is winning 48.4% to 43.2%, with other candidates making up the missing percentages, per the Guardian. While that's a strong showing, it's not what many on the left were hoping for: that Lula would break 50% and win outright in this round. That means that Lula and Bolsonaro go to a runoff election  at the end of October.

Some analysis of the race suggests that in smaller races – in Brazil's Congress and in local races, Bolsonaro's movement still has power, suggesting that Lula's massive swell of support isn't a knockout blow to the Brazilian far-right.

The margins in the wider presidential vote were also closer than expected. AP reports that before this round of voting, polls showed Lula up 50% to 36%, which clearly wasn't borne out.

Most disturbingly, many Bolsonaro supporters, and the President himself, are sticking with rhetoric that basically rejects public information and the general democratic transfer of power. AP quoted one Bolsonaro supporter saying that he flat out didn't believe the reports that Lula was polling higher, and Bolsonaro has already started doing some of the same "election machine conspiracy" stuff that Trump popularized in the United States. If the margins get even closer in the runoff vote, what are the chances that Bolsonaro accepts the results and actually leaves office? We'll have to wait and see.

Biden to Visit Puerto Rico and Florida For Hurricane Relief

President Biden is headed out on a hurricane relief tour this week, stopping by both Puerto Rico and the Florida Gulf Coast to show face in affected areas still devastated by Hurricanes Fiona and Ian. The former hurricane has almost been forgotten in the press since Ian made landfall, but Puerto Rico is still reeling. More than 100,000 people are still without power after the storm, and the core problems that made Fiona so devastating have yet to be addressed. Meanwhile, the death toll from Ian rises to at least 62, as search and rescue efforts continue.

Ukraine Recaptures Key Town in Territory Russia Now Claims as Its Own

Ukraine's multi-front counter-offensive continued over the weekend, with another major victory. The Ukrainian military claims it has entirely captured the formerly-occupied city of Lyman in the Donetsk region, forcing a hasty Russian retreat from the area and, according to reports, inspiring a wave of panic among Russian forces and commenters back in Moscow. This comes just days after Putin announced that he would formally annex territory in Donetsk and other occupied areas after sham "referendums" showed absurd levels of public support for joining Russia. The disconnect between Putin's rhetoric and clearly stated goals and the strategic and military reality on the ground is encouraging for Ukrainian forces, but also disturbing, as fears of some kind of escalation, perhaps nuclear, now abound.

QUICKEST QUICKIES

  • SFO Airport Workers Win New Contract After Strike Over 1,000 fast food workers will get an immediate raise of at least $3 per hour, rising to $5 by 2024, and an immediate bonus of $1500, after a 3-day strike. Let's go!! via Stephen Greenhouse.
  • Former Counterintelligence Officer Lured Migrants Onto DeSantis's Martha's Vineyard Flights Perla Huerta, a recently retired Army combat medic and counterintelligence officer, was DeSantis's point person for the possibly-criminal scheme. via NYT.
  • Trump's White House Records STILL Aren't Turned In The National Archives is running out of patience. via NYT.
  • Nord Stream Pipelines Stopped Leaking Still don't know who blew them up! via NYT.

SOME NUMBER

125

Current death toll from a horrific stampede at an Indonesian soccer match over the weekend, where security forces fired tear gas indiscriminately into the crowd when angry fans tried to storm the field, kicking off the deadly crush.

ON THE SHOW TODAY

10/3 Sam and Emma host Donald Yacovone, Associate at the Hutchins Center for African and African American Research at Harvard University, to discuss his recent book Teaching White Supremacy: America's Democratic Ordeal and the Forging of Our National Identity. Then, they are joined by Chris Smalls, president of the Amazon Labor Union (ALU), IN STUDIO (!) to discuss the recent developments with the ALU's organizing efforts across the country.

DON'T MISS MR CLIPS

Red States Sue Biden To Block Student Loan Forgiveness

This is what they'll do anytime he even tries to pass a generally helpful policy.

EMT Calls BS On Elijah McClain Autopsy Report

An EMT/firefighter from Atlanta calls in to call BS on the official autopsy report on Elijah McClain, one of the most egregious killings in recent years of brutal police violence.

PARTING WORDS

“We’d been using bottled water to flush the commode but now that’s all gone. “I feel like we’re going backwards."

Johnny Riggs, a resident of Port Charlotte, Florida, who evacuated to a shelter during Hurricane Ian before returning home, trying to rebuild his life, before finding that conditions were still so bad he had to return to the shelter.

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