Trump Tariffs May Spark Global Recession - The Thursday AM Quickie 4/3/25
I must say I'm delighted to have Whitney join the newsletter. Her background in business reporting and union activism means she probably would've done a better job than me covering the big global trade war news today, but don't worry, you'll get her take next week. And the week after, and so on. Sadly this story will be defining our lives for a while. - Corey
ON THE SHOW TODAY
4/3: It's an EmMajority Report Thursday! The guests will be political analyst Omar Baddar on Israel's renewed attacks in Gaza, and Paris Marx, host of the podcast "Tech Won't Save Us," about how Elon Musk is running running Tesla into the ground.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Thanks again paid subscribers!
Today you'll read about the Russia exception to Donald Trump's worldwide tariffs, the quiet "winding down" of Elon Musk's co-presidency, and New York City Mayor-Cop Eric Adams' dubious taste in reading material.
Tell your friends to sign up for this M-F newsletter at AMQuickie.com!
THE BIG NEWS
Get Ready to Pay More for Everything: Trump Declares Trade War on the World
Economists are predicting recessions not only in the US but in many countries after Donald Trump claimed emergency powers to impose blanket tariffs on imports from most of the rest of the world. "This is how you sabotage the world's economic engine while claiming to supercharge it," Nigel Green, CEO of the global financial advisory deVere Group, tells Reuters. "The reality is stark: these tariffs will push prices higher on thousands of everyday goods - from phones to food - and that will fuel inflation at a time when it is already uncomfortably persistent."
In detail, the new trade policy amounts to a 10 percent tax on nearly all US imports effective Saturday, but some countries will be punished further, with total tariffs up to 20 percent on the European Union, 24 percent on Japan, and whopping 54 percent tariffs on China, the world's largest exporter. The news, which Trump pompously hailed as "liberation day" and the beginning of a new "golden age," immediately sent global stock markets into a downward spiral. "'Retaliation day' will follow 'liberation day,'" one asset manager tells the Financial Times. "Governments will look weak if they don't hit back."
Thanks again to Trump, the future now looks even more dismal. "In the short run, the effect is probably a recession. It's going to raise the price of so many goods that can't be made in the United States," Council on Foreign Relations economist Brad Setser tells the Washington Post. "In the long run, it's a vision of the US that is very isolated from the world." Even some Republicans seem to understand Trump's isolationist ideas on trade are terrible, with several GOP Senators joining Democrats yesterday to vote for a bill that would undo some tariffs on Canada.
Though Trump's team is projecting unwarranted confidence, the execution of this policy was typically slapdash. A number of uninhabited islands were slapped with tariffs, but some countries were notably absent from Trump's list – most conspicuously Russia. The Washington Post reports that the Kremlin this week sent Kirill Dmitriev, who runs Russia's sovereign wealth fund – "widely considered a slush fund for [Aspiring Tsar] Vladimir Putin" – to Washington, DC, for "ongoing" economic talks. Dmitriev needed, and received, a sanctions waiver to visit the US. Could "Made in Russia" goods be coming to a MAGAfied grocery store near you?