Polymarket Scams Rule the Trump Era – The Friday AM Quickie 4/24/26
Scientists have uncovered evidence of "that massive, kraken-like octopuses" that prowled the seas during the age of the dinosaurs. Who's to say they aren't still down there? Cryptids ahoy! I'm off, Whitney's back Monday. - Corey
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THE BIG NEWS
US Soldier Who Helped Kidnap Maduro Indicted Over Polymarket Bets
Insider trading is a crime associated more with Wall Street sharks than reality show contestants and US Army special forces operators. But thanks to the unchecked expansion of legalized gambling under the Trump regime, that's changing.
Federal prosecutors yesterday unveiled charges against Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made more than $400,000 by betting on the outcomes of US military operations in Venezuela on the Polymarket prediction market. Van Dyke knew the precise dates of various US actions because he was involved in the "planning and execution" of the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He "allegedly transferred most of the proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault and then a newly created online brokerage account before withdrawing the majority of the money," the Washington Post reports. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates Wall Street, also filed charges against Van Dyke, per Politico.
Asked about the case by reporters, Trump lamented the vice industry that helped make him rich and famous. "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," he said. "I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually."
That's pretty rich, because his family business, the Trump Organization, is planning on launching its own prediction market, Truth Predict. And, as the Associated Press reports, Trump's son, Don. Jr, has a stake in Polymarket and advises its competitor, Kalshi. Trump's war on Iran, as well as his day-to-day public outbursts, have been a huge focus of bets on both platforms.
"Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible," Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who studies prediction markets, tells the AP. "He's so unpredictable." I'd say he is predictable in one sense: he always chooses the most corrupt, selfish, destructive option available to him in any situation. It's safe to assume that Trump's family and inner circle – and possibly Trump himself, who rarely leaves money on the table – are cashing in in the same way as Sgt. Van Dyke.
Besides fostering corruption, prediction markets incentivize crime. Congress needs to get a handle on this rotten industry immediately.
MORE STORIES TO WATCH
Wider War Watch: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extended By Three Weeks, Trump Says
- With the Strait of Hormuz Closed, All Iran Has to Do Is Wait "The speed with which this became a quagmire for the United States has been, also, quite stunning," says Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and vice president at the Brookings Institution. via the New York Times, NBC News, the Guardian, and Politico.
- So Much for That Ceasefire: Trump Orders US Navy to 'Shoot and Kill' Iranian Boats with 'No Hesitation' A third US aircraft carrier strike group arrived in waters near Iran yesterday, but it's not clear for what precise purpose. via Al Jazeera, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.
- New Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao, a Trump Bootlicker, Brings More 'Chaos' Into the US Military The abrupt firing of former Navy secretary John Phelan, a Trump donor and personal friend, "is a sign that [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth retains Trump's support despite recent high-level personnel churn at the Pentagon." via Politico, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times.
- Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk Expects Russia to Invade Another European Country Within 'Months' -- and Doubts the US Will Help NATO Allies "Tusk noted that some members of the US-led defence alliance 'pretend[ed] that nothing happened' when about 20 Russian drones breached Poland's airspace last year." via the Financial Times and the New York Times.
- Trump Lawyer Cashes in on Bosnia Pipeline Project Promising an Alternative to Russian Gas "AAFS Infrastructure and Energy was incorporated in November last year and has not disclosed its owners. It is fronted by two leading members of Trump's campaign to overturn his 2020 election defeat: Jesse Binnall, a lawyer who defended him against allegations of inciting the Capitol riots after his defeat, and Joe Flynn, the brother of the president's former national security adviser." via the Guardian, the New York Times, and the Washington Post.
- Was CIA Mexico Operation Exposed By Agent's Deaths Last Weekend Part of a Larger Covert Campaign? "'The threats of Trump’s government to invade Mexico have materialized, not with a conventional occupation force, but with an undercover war, with clandestine operations,' Víctor Hernández, a security expert, told El Universal newspaper." via the Los Angeles Times.
- International Criminal Court Confirms Trial of Former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte for Crimes Against Humanity in His 'War on Drugs' Duterte's lawyers argued, unsuccessfully, that he was unfit to stand trial "due to cognitive impairment." via BBC News and Deutsche Welle.
- Congress Balks at Shoveling More Billions Into Trump's 'Golden Dome' Space-Based Missile Defense Boondoggle Golden Dome proponents argue argue that "Greenland is needed for the system to work because this land lies directly under the most likely flight paths that nuclear missiles from Russia and China would take on their way to hitting the continental United States." via Politico, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the New York Times.
QUICKEST QUICKIES
- Justice Department Inspector General to Audit Release of Epstein Files Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who co-authored the law forcing the release of the government's files on sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, expressed optimism about the audit, saying "the survivors and the American people deserve transparency." via the Washington Post, NBC News, and BBC News.
- Trump 'Pardon Broker' Hired Thugs to Violently Extort $500,000 from Client Granted Clemency for White-Collar Crimes Lawyer and lobbyist Josh Nass, who owns a $1.8 million condo in Trump Tower, allegedly someone to force his pardoned client's son "into a car with masked men" to extort "every penny of what they owe." via the New York Times.
- Long-Overdue Federal Marijuana Reclassification Is Part of Roger Stone's Plan to Win Young and Libertarian Voters for Trump "This is a Republican president ordering his Attorney General to take steps that benefit the cannabis sector. It suggests there could be a path forward for more substantive legislative changes though that may require the House to go Democratic," writes one industry analyst. via the Guardian, the Associated Press, and CNBC.
- Incumbent New York Democratic Rep. 'Desperate' Dan Goldman Pours His Inherited Fortune Into Campaign Against Progressive Challenger Brad Lander "Let's call this what it is," Lander says. "He's trying to buy the election." via the New York Times, the Forward, and The American Prospect.
SOME NUMBER
384
That's how many foreign-born Americans Donald Trump's Justice Department wants to strip of their hard-won citizenship, the New York Times reports. It's unclear why those specific individuals are being targeted for "denaturalization," but Francey Hakes, the director of the Executive Office for United States Attorneys, describes this "first wave of cases" as a "White House initiative."
ON THE SHOW TODAY
4/24: Emma and Sam will be in studio; the guest will be Astead W. Herndon, Vox editorial director and host of the new podcast America, Actually.
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PARTING WORDS
"The president continues to struggle with daytime somnolence."
-- CNN medical analyst Jonathan Reiner, the late Vice President Dick Cheney's former cardiologist, responding to fresh video of Donald Trump falling asleep in the middle of an Oval Office meeting once again. Prior to dozing off, Trump was "babbling" about the swimming pools at his buildings and comparing the size of his rally crowds to Martin Luther King Jr.'s.
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