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Trump Likely To Declare Victory No Matter What - The Tuesday AM Quickie 11/5/24

By Jacob Silverman —

I pray to the unholy electoral college gods that this thing is over by tomorrow. -Jacob

ON THE SHOW TODAY

11/5: It's a special News Day Tuesday! ELECTION DAY!

READ ALL ABOUT IT

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Today you'll read about what form the inevitable chaos of election day might take, the fate of the Senate, the court battle over Musk's voter payoff scheme, and a strike at the New York Times.

THE BIG NEWS

It's Finally Election Day. Let's Get Crazy.

Our day of electoral deliverance – or is it apocalypse? – is officially at hand. While tens of millions of people have already voted early, today is election day across the country, so report to your nearest polling station or MSNBC anchor. The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains nail-bitingly close, but late swing-state polling and general vibes seem to favor Harris. It perhaps doesn't help that Trump recently headlined a Nazi rally, looks like a doddering old man who can't open a car door, and is taking on an increasingly reddish hue as he mock-fellates microphones.

Since Donald Trump made the most notorious escalator ride in history to announce his candidacy in 2015, he's dominated our politics, our media, and our collective psyche in a way that only a sadist would predict were possible. Today, he might be dispatched electorally, but he will continue to be MAGA's cult leader, and the head of the Republican Party, until he dies.

Trump is expected to declare victory pretty much no matter what happens. Indeed, he might preemptively do so if he sees himself losing. He has spent years calling the system corrupt and, in recent months, has described certain contests as rigged against him. There's a possibility for street violence or attacks on polling places, and state officials are preparing accordingly. Washington, DC is boarded up.

But the most fierce attacks on the integrity of the election will likely come from Trump himself and from his lawyers, who have spent years planning a program of lawfare and what might be euphemistically called "fuckery." They've filed more than 100 lawsuits and laid the groundwork in some states to not certify the vote or present alternate electors. In recent weeks, Trump and other Republicans have spread false stories about voter fraud and destruction of ballots.

Besides the expected Republican dirty tricks, some contests may be close enough to trigger legally mandated recounts. Some states may take a few days to produce their final tallies. Those could include some of the key battleground states, which you've likely heard way too much about this year: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So while we may have a result tonight, the question is, will it be respected? Since Trump's embrace of the big lie and the transgressive shock of January 6, certain verities about our democracy and our voting system are no longer so certain. We can reliably expect some form of Democratic cowardice and Republican deception, but beyond that: TBD.

Make sure to tune into today's Majority Report for tons of meticulous analysis, hair-pulling, and football spiking – whatever the situation calls for – from Sam and Emma. That'll be followed by live election night coverage at 7pm ET. And Corey will have more for you in tomorrow's newsletter. 🫡

What Will Congress Look Like?

While Trump may be fading late in polling, the Republicans have a good shot at regaining control of the Senate and at maintaining their slight House majority. If Trump wins the presidency, of course, it's game over, but as of now we may be looking at a Democrat president battling it out with a Republican-led legislature. The key Senate races include battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada. The Democrats are also hoping to hold onto Jon Tester's seat in Wyoming, where he's running for re-election against Tim Sheehy, a Navy SEAL veteran whose sketchy history includes lying about how he sustained a gunshot wound. For a roundup of some of the closely watched House races, check out these primers from NBC News and The Guardian.

Trump Is Open To A Vaccine Ban and Letting RFK Do Women Stuff

In his typically indulgent, "sure, buddy, that sounds nice" kind of way, Trump has said that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would have a "big role in the administration" overseeing public health issues. Kennedy already promised to do away with fluoride in the public water supply, and Trump recently seemed open to RFK's insane proposal to ban certain vaccines. At his Madison Square Garden Nazi rally, Trump indicated that RFK might have a wide remit, allowing him to "go wild on food" and "go wild on medicines." Trump has also been telling rallies that RFK, a serial philanderer who has been accused of sexual assault, will work on women's health issues. It sounds like Trump doesn't mind killing a lot of Americans.

QUICKEST QUICKIES

  • Judge Allows Musk to Continue Paying Off Voters A judge rejected Philly DA Larry Krasner's arguments that a daily $1 million giveaway from Elon Musk's America PAC to registered voters was an illegal lottery. The giveaway will be allowed to go on, at least through election day. The hearing, however, contained some interesting revelations, indicating that Krasner, and perhaps the feds, will continue to pursue some kind of legal accountability here. via CNN and AP News.
  • Israel-Italy Spying Scandal Keeps Growing Israeli intelligence has been accused of using hackers and a private investigations firm in Milan to collect information on prominent business and political figures in Italy, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The scope of the scandal has now grown, with one wiretap indicating Israel might have been pursuing information about Kremlin finances, along with material for extortion. The ongoing investigation has produced several arrests. via Politico, Middle Easter Monitor, and Jerusalem Post.
  • NYT Tech Workers Go On Strike The New York Times Tech Guild, which at more than 600 members is one of the largest unions of tech workers in the country, went on strike yesterday. The Guild has been at odds with management over pay increases and a demand for a "just cause" provision governing firings. The NewsGuild of New York, which represents other Times employees, has filed a number of unfair labor practice charges against the paper with the NLRB. via NYT, WaPo, and Action Network.
  • Western Intelligence Officials Accuse Russia Of Cargo Plane Plot Two recent fires at DHL logistics hubs were the result of a Russian plot to get incendiary devices on airplanes, according to the head of Poland's foreign intelligence agency. Russia has been accused of pursuing a shadow campaign of sabotage and murder as the war in Ukraine quietly spreads throughout Europe (and into Russia itself). via WSJ and NBC News.

SOME NUMBER

$325.2 billion

That's how much cash Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's conglomerate, has on hand. The legendary investor has been unloading his large stake in Apple, selling tens of billions of dollars worth of shares over the last year. Anticipating a near-term rise in capital-gains taxes, Buffett has been selling stocks and hoarding cash, although the billionaire has insisted that he doesn't mind paying taxes.

DON'T MISS MR CLIPS‌

Republicans Can't Stop Screwing Up

Pretty big whiff here from House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson.

What The Hell Is Happening?

Semafor's Dave Weigel joins the show to talk about the shocking Iowa poll and how some key demographics might break late.

PARTING WORDS

"Would you rather have the black president or the white president who got $1.7 billion off the price? I think they want the white guy right now."

-- Deranged felon Donald Trump offering his closing pitch to an event sponsored by the Black Conservative Federation in Columbia, SC.

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