Global Recession Incoming, Warns IMF – The Wednesday AM Quickie 4/15/26
Before reading today’s litany of horrors, please enjoy the adorable reunion of Artemis II astronaut Christina Koch and her beloved dog, Sadie. That’s it from me, Corey is back tomorrow. -Whitney
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THE BIG NEWS
Trump’s War on Iran Prompts Global Recession Warning
The International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that Trump’s war on Iran risks plunging the entire planet into a recession, according to the AP, Financial Times, Guardian and NYT. The United Kingdom will take the hardest hit of all G7 nations because it is “particularly exposed” to increased energy prices; the world’s poorest countries will require IMF bailouts to survive.
The IMF noted that while there was a range of possible outcomes, some of the pain is already guaranteed. Trump’s war has already drastically increased the price of fertilizer, for example, as my colleague Emma Janssen explained a few days ago. The IMF estimates that those price increases show up as food price increases for consumers within 12 months. Per the BBC plus my own emphasis:
The IMF said that under a “severe scenario – with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027 – global growth would collapse to about 2% this year, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession. The IMF estimates global growth has only fallen below this rate four times since 1980, most recently amid the Covid pandemic in 2020 and after the 2008 financial crisis.
In a blow to households, inflation would also exceed 6% – forcing central banks worldwide to drive up interest rates to prevent the shock from allowing fast-rising consumer prices becoming entrenched.
With the threat of an escalating war in the Middle East, the IMF said the best way to limit the economic damage was to bring an end to the conflict. Beyond that, it called on central banks to remain vigilant and urged governments considering using emergency financial support to focus on temporary and targeted measures because most countries had unsustainably high debt levels.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had a characteristically sick response. He said “a small bit of economic pain” is the price we’re required to pay to satisfy the blood-soaked whims of his liege. The multimillionaire said he is unbothered by the economic suffering of mere peasants because he is busy thinking about imaginary scenarios he made up in his head. “I wonder what the hit to global GDP would be if a nuclear weapon hit London,” he mused. “I am saying that I am less concerned about short-term forecasts, for long-term security.” Right. UK officials say there’s minimal chance that the Iranian military could hit London with ballistic missiles even if it wanted to. But that’s not stopping Trump’s lackey from his fear mongering and/or gibberish. “The biggest risk you can take is one you don't know you were taking,” he said, adding that US and Israeli strikes had eliminated the “tail risk” of Iranian nuclear strikes, whatever that means. If you know, I will pay you USD 5 (GBP 3.68). In the meantime, please see below.
MORE STORIES TO WATCH
Corporate America Doing Great in Affordability Crisis
Alright. You and I are not getting rich. But someone is. Guess who! No, guess! Ok, fine. I’ll just tell you. Corporate executives! The real Americans! That’s right, executives are expecting “exceptionally strong” earnings for the first quarter of the year, the Financial Times reported. Earlier this week, I got irritated and wrote that prices are high because company executives are raising them. This is an unpopular way to put it; the business press likes to say that “inflation” is raising prices, as if “inflation” is a force of nature or a guy by that name or something. That’s what the FT suggests when it says that earnings of S&P 500 companies rose by 12.6 percent “despite” surging oil prices. The increased earnings are BECAUSE OF the rising oil prices! Corporate executives are raising their prices so that we’re the ones paying for the more expensive oil, not them, and then some. In fact, analysts say that earnings growth “could turn out to be as much as 19 per cent, which would mark the strongest quarter since the end of 2021.” One investment portfolio manager had this to offer: “Just because you have high oil prices, provided you have government spending in the background and we don’t have a recession, there’s no reason why earnings growth shouldn’t stay strong.” Let me translate that into what the Securities and Exchange Commission (RIP) might have once called “plain English.” It doesn’t matter to executives if oil prices are high, because they can always protect themselves by raising prices on Americans, both directly at the checkout counter or indirectly on the US government. Either way, our money is flowing upwards into their coffers.
New Swalwell Survivor Comes Forward, Says He Drugged, Raped, Choked Her Until She Lost Consciousness
Lonna Drewes told reporters at a press conference in Los Angeles yesterday that Rep. Eric Swalwell raped her in 2018, when she was working as a model, the LA Times, San Francisco Chronicle and The Guardian reported. They met three times socially. “On the third occasion, I believe he drugged my drink,” Drewes said. “I only had one glass of wine.” They were meant to go to a political event together. Instead, “He raped me and he choked me and while he was choking me I lost consciousness and I thought I died,” she said. “I did not consent to any sexual activity.”
Drewes and her attorneys filed a report at the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s office, which covers West Hollywood, where Swalwell allegedly attacked her. They also presented evidence, including texts, journal entries, and a photo. Drewes did not report Swalwell at the time of his attack, because she was afraid he would hurt her career; she also said his attack made her want to die. “I did not want to live anymore," she said. “I cried all the time for years.” Swalwell’s wife was pregnant at the time.
QUICKEST QUICKIES
- Drunk Serial Killer Continues Maritime Murder Spree Peter Brian Hegseth’s military killed another seven people in the eastern Pacific Ocean in a pair of attacks on Sunday and Monday, bringing the death count of his illegal war to at least 170 victims. via the AP and The Guardian.
- Racist Texas Governor Threatens to Defund Houston Police Over ICE Ordinance Greg Abbott said he’d withhold $110 million from the city, including its police department, over a new ordinance passed last week clarifying how city officials may interact with federal immigration agents. via the NYT.
- Google, Meta, Microsoft Continue Tracking Users Even After They Opt Out: Auditor Independent auditor webXray conducted a privacy audit of the companies in California and found that they set ad cookies in the browsers of users, even after users opted out, potentially violating state regulation and “racking up billions in fines.” via 404 Media.
- LA Public School Teachers Make Last-Minute Deal, Avoid Strike Los Angeles public school teachers were prepared to shut down the district – the nation’s second-largest – starting yesterday; they reached a deal at 2 a.m. local time. via the WSJ.
SOME NUMBER
46 percent
That’s how many people in the US think that “facts on vaccines are still up for debate and that it is damaging to enforce their uptake,” according to a Politico poll of 3,851 adults conducted last month. More Republicans (54 percent) agreed with the statement than Democrats (36 percent).
ON THE SHOW TODAY
4/15: Emma is hosting solo and her guests are Austin Kocher, research professor at Syracuse University, who writes a newsletter about America's immigration enforcement system; and Daniel Boguslaw, investigative journalist on to discuss his piece in The American Prospect, Congressional Black Caucus to Support Spying Powers Used on BLM Activists.
DON'T MISS MR CLIPS
Congress Has A Predator Problem
It also has a brains problem, if the way Swalwell handled the pretty spy lady is any indication.
You Deserve A Raise | Arindrajit Dube | TMR
Check out his book here and bookmark the interview he gave late last year if you want to keep some of his data points handy for your next union meeting.
PARTING WORDS
“This guy should be removed immediately before his lack of impulse control causes an irreversible tragedy.”
-- Anthony Scaramucci, the former White House press secretary, writing on social media that lawmakers should remove Trump from office because his mental decline so severe that even the NYT can no longer avoid it. But it’s too late. Trump has already caused numerous irreversible tragedies, at home and abroad. As FT columnist Edward Luce points out, “Trump’s second term has been one of the most warlike of any US presidency in living memory. In the first year he ordered strikes on seven countries – Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, Nigeria, Somalia and Iraq, as well as dozens of hits on boats in the Caribbean.”
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